Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most severe impacts of climate change, with rising waters threatening to inundate small-island nations and coastal regions by the end of the century. At the same time, SLR is one of the impacts with the largest uncertainties, with different studies projecting widely different ranges over the 21st century. Given the large body of literature suggesting that the high-end IPCC estimates may be overly conservative, it would not be surprising if the upcoming IPCC Special Report Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC), due out on Wednesday, considered potential 21st century SLR estimates higher than those in the IPCC AR5. For example, a recent study by Prof Jonathan Bamber at the University of Bristol and colleagues brought together a group of 22 experts to assess their views of the likelihood of different future SLR scenarios. They found that a global SLR exceeding 2m by 2100 “lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high-emission scenario”. This is more than twice the upper value found in the IPCC AR5.
Carbon Brief 23rd Sept 2019 read more »