Over the past six months, the world has edged closer to nuclear war than it has been since the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Doomsday Clock is ticking toward midnight. The global power balance has been dramatically reshuffled, and the potential for disastrous miscalculation hasn’t been so high in 80 years. The match and fuse for this is instability — an exaggerated sense of U.S. weakness and lack of capability and resolve — that could lead to huge, aggressive military miscalculations and mistakes by our enemies. The Biden administration has set the table for such a catastrophe. The timing could not be more dangerous. China has changed strategic direction and has been building its nuclear stockpile and delivery systems. China also has continued to develop hypersonic weapons, including stand-off “carrier killers,” space weapons and cyber capabilities to blind opponents’ strategic and conventional systems. Russia has been advertising (mostly for domestic consumption, but nonetheless worrying) its “unstoppable” delivery systems, and has a very capable nuclear stockpile and military. Iran will continue to move forward with building nuclear weapons. Pakistan and India both have significant nuclear capability in an increasingly unstable part of the world. Nuclear-armed North Korea is again assuming a more belligerent posture. Israel has a full nuclear triad (land, air, subs) to respond to existential aggression. The U.K. and France have significant nuclear deterrents. The world is a powder keg.
The Hill 30th Aug 2021 read more »
This paper focuses on the causal determinants of the accumulation of nuclear weapons, also known as vertical nuclear proliferation, in China, France, India, Pakistan, Russia, UK, and the US. It empirically analyzes the causal relationships between the civilian uses of nuclear energy, military expenditures, trade openness, and the stockpiling of nuclear warheads.
Energy research & Social Science (accessed) 1st Sept 2021 read more »
The escalating crisis in Britain’s military procurement system has been exposed in an analysis of major defence projects worth £166bn that found none rated “green”, meaning it was likely to be on time, on budget and meet expectations. Official analysis of 36 projects ranging from the £6.4bn Ajax armoured vehicle, which is running years late and giving soldiers testing it vibration injuries and hearing damage, to the £31bn Dreadnought programme to replace the Navy’s Trident submarines reveals a host of delays, problems and budget overruns.
Telegraph 30th Aug 2021 read more »