£10,000 to increase your energy bill: making the economics of heat pumps stack up. While there are debates about the right way of decarbonising UK heating, there is no doubt that heat pumps will need to play a big role. And the government has acknowledged that. We currently install heat pumps at a rate of around 30,000 per year. The government’s target is to install 600,000 a year by 2028. That figure is likely to need to rise to 1.5 million a year by 2035. It’s hard to overstate the scale of ramp-up that’s required to hit those targets. To illustrate: if you stood on Whitehall and faced north, a chain of all the heat pumps installed last year would stretch to the M25. By 2028, we’ll need that line of heat pumps to stretch to Edinburgh. By 2035, it would need to stretch all the way to John O’Groats… and back again. To get that level of take-up, we need a proposition for consumers that is desirable. But at the moment, the basic consumer proposition is: pay £10,000 for a device which you don’t understand, and which will increase your energy bill. And that’s if you can find an installer to fit it.
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change 4th May 2021 read more »