The cumulative additional cost of decarbonising the UK’s heating system by 2050 could be as high as £450 billion, research for the government’s infrastructure advisory body has concluded. According to a new study carried out by consultancy Element Energy & E4techfor the National Infrastructure Commission, all options for heat decarbonisation are “significantly more costly” than continuing with the status quo. The report estimates that under the worst case assumption in the study, the additional cost could be as high as £450bn. But its central cost assumption is that central assumption is that additional costs of heat decarbonisation will work out at £120bn to £300bn. The study estimates that the average annual cost of heating per household will be £100 to £300 higher in 2050 than in the status quo. However the study says that these figures for increased costs have to be placed in the context of the wider growth of the economy, which it expects to triple in size by the middle of this century based on anticipated average GDP growth of 2.3% per annum between now and then. Based on these figures, it estimates that the total cost of heating will represent a ‘substantially smaller share’ of GDP than in 2015. Another factor to be weighed in the balance is the increased energy security resulting from reduced reliance on imported gas. The researchers estimate that a combination of energy efficiency measures could deliver savings of nearly 130 TWh per annum, equating to more than a quarter of total electricity demand.
Edie 23rd May 2018 read more »