Every country in the world would be economically better off if all could agree to strengthen their commitments on the climate crisis through international cooperation, new research has found. But if countries go no further than their current CO2 pledges – which are too weak to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, and would lead to dangerous levels of global heating – then they face steep economic losses. The global economy would lose out by as much as $600tn (£476tn) by the end of the century, on current emissions targets, compared with its likely growth if countries meet the Paris goals, according to a paper published in the journal Nature Communications. If countries fail even to implement their current plans – which would lead to an estimated 3C (5.4F) of heating, far beyond the 2C or 1.5C settled on as the limit of safety in the 2015 Paris agreement – then the outlook is even worse, with losses of up to $800tn by 2100, according to the report from a group of scientists from the Beijing Institute of Technology and other mainly Chinese institutions.
Guardian 14th April 2020 read more »
All countries will benefit economically by the end of the century if they raise their targets to tackle climate change, a study has found. A “farsighted self-preservation strategy” would result in total global economic benefits ranging from $127 trillion to $616 trillion by 2100. If countries fail to deliver on their existing emissions targets, total losses could reach almost $800 trillion by 2100, according to research by Chinese scientists. Studies have shown that existing targets are too weak to meet the goal in the Paris Agreement, signed in 2016, of limiting global warming to well below 2C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Countries are supposed to submit revised targets this year but only a handful have done so, while Japan published an almost unchanged target. The scientists, who are mainly from the Beijing Institute of Technology, analysed the costs of cutting emissions for each country as well as the benefits of avoiding damage from climate change and tested how their economies would be affected. The high upfront costs would mean some developed countries and regions, including the US, Russia, Japan and the EU, might not gain net economic benefits until after 2080. Countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, including Ethiopia, Algeria, Columbia and Venezuela, could break even by 2030. The authors of the study, published in Nature Communications, note that high upfront costs for the US — which will have to invest $5 trillion to $33 trillion — Canada and Australia present “a severe obstacle in implementing the proposed self-preservation strategies in the real world”.
Times 15th April 2020 read more »
The global economy could be $616tr (£489tr) better off by the end of the century if countries cut emissions enough to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Research published in Nature Communications suggests all countries around the world would win an economic boost from meeting international climate goals. They also stand to lose trillions of dollars if they don’t take more ambitious actions to cut emissions. “Inaction to climate change may lead to substantial socio-economic losses,” warned Professor Biying Yu from the Beijing Institute of Technology, who led the study.
iNews 14th April 2020 read more »