Nuclear generation will continue to grow until 2040, although less rapidly than overall power generation, with its share of overall power generation declining, the latest edition of BP’s Energy Outlook report says. In one scenario, which assumes that government policies, technology and social preferences continue to evolve in a manner and speed seen over the recent past, nuclear power grows at an average rate of 1.1% a year, broadly in line with the growth seen over the past 20 years or so. However, the continuing growth in nuclear power disguises two contrasting patterns, the report says. Nuclear energy within the 36 countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development declines materially over the period as aging nuclear plants are decommissioned and there is limited investment in new capacity. In contrast, nuclear generation in China increases strongly, rising by 1,000 TWh until 2040 with the level of nuclear generation in China by 2040 similar to that in the entire OECD. In another scenario, the mix of fuels in global power generation shifts materially, with renewables gaining share at the expense of coal, nuclear and hydro.
Nucnet 18th Feb 2019 read more »
