Global energy demand will continue to increase as a result of human development in the world’s poorest countries, says oil and gas major BP in its latest outlook to 2040. BP says in its energy outlook 2019 that this increase in demand is a necessity for rising prosperity, but an impediment to the Paris climate goals. This is because even rapid uptake of renewable and other low-carbon sources is insufficient to cover rising energy demand. As a result, according to the outlook, there is a continued need for large amounts of fossil fuels. Yet cracks are starting to appear in this foundational assumption for BP and other prominent energy outlooks. Indeed, BP’s latest outlook cuts the rate of demand increases in its main scenario, compared to previous editions, and includes others where growth is even slower. Meanwhile, an alternative outlook published this week by the consultancy McKinsey suggests global demand could stop rising in the 2030s, after more than a century of sustained growth. Carbon Brief runs through the key findings from BP’s energy outlook 2019 and explores what it might mean for fossil fuels and the climate, if global energy demand stops growing.
Carbon Brief 15th Feb 2019 read more »