The economic damage from coastal flooding in Europe could reach almost €1 trillion per year by 2100 without new investment in adaptation to climate change, a new study finds. The research looks at how rising sea levels and continued socioeconomic development will affect future coastal flood risk in 24 European countries. The UK would be the worst hit by far, the study finds, seeing up to €236bn in annual damages and 1.1 million people exposed to coastal flooding by 2100, if no upgrades are made to coastal protection. The new study, published in Nature Climate Change, aims to combine modelling of both extreme sea levels and socioeconomic development to show what damages could look like this century without further adaptation efforts. It projects that the economic damages from these extreme events will increase from €1.25bn per year today to between €93bn and €961bn per year by 2100 (in today’s money), depending on how socioeconomic trends play out over the rest of this century. This is a 75- to 770-fold increase on today’s levels. Dr Michalis Vousdoukas, an oceanographer at the European Joint Research Centre in Ispra, Italy, and lead author of the paper, tells Carbon Brief the high expected damages in the UK are due to its exposure to the oceanic waves of the North Atlantic. This is one of the areas in Europe most exposed to strong ocean conditions, he says, leading to more intense weather conditions than in Mediterranean countries, for example.
Carbon Brief 13th Aug 2018 read more »
Natural ocean variability is heightening the rate of retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet, a new study finds. A 16-year study of ocean conditions in Antarctica suggests that the periodic arrival of warm currents as a result of natural variability is worsening the rate of ice mass loss from key glaciers in the region. The natural pulses of warm water could be key to driving short-term changes in glacier ice mass loss, the lead author tells Carbon Brief. In the long term, this periodic ocean warming is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, he adds. The new findings serve as a “smoking gun” by helping scientists to understand the mechanisms behind the ice sheet’s retreat, another scientist tells Carbon Brief.
Carbon Brief 13th Aug 2018 read more »
The next few years could be “anomalously warm”, according to a new study. Researchers have developed a mathematical model to predict how average global surface air temperatures will vary over the next few years. The results suggest that the period from 2018 to 2022 could see an increased likelihood of extreme temperatures. The findings are published in the journal Nature Communications.
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